The Big Retail Winners Of 2020 Will Be …

Which retailer has the brightest business prospects at the start of the new year? Will it be one from the list of retailers that made positive headlines in 2019 or a completely different business that finds the key to consumers’ wallets in 2020? This year, a few names grabbed the big headlines:

• Walmart was selected as “2019 Retailer of the Year” by Progressive Grocer.
• In September, Supermarket News named Giant Foods as “Retailer of the Year” and called out the launch of its new Giant Heirloom Market concept store.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods was named Footwear News’ “Retailer Of The Year” as its “move to pull guns from its shelves took a positive turn for business.”
• Neiman Marcus beat out Selfridges and Bloomingdale’s to be named “Retailer of the Year” by Luxury Daily.
• Target’s Brian Cornell was honored as “Top CEO of the Year” by CNN Business.

In an online discussion on Friday, Members of RetailWire’s BrainTrust panel, considering prospects for 2020, pointed to the success of one retailer that spent the middle of last decade overcoming reputation loss due to a data breach and building out strategies meant to address age-old criticisms.

“Target would top my list for continued success in 2020,” wrote Lauren Goldberg, principal at LSG Marketing Solutions. “Their investments in both digital and in-store have really created a seamless shopping experience.”

“Target is well known for its marketing spots and high brand awareness,” wrote startup advisor Mohamed Amer. “The company has been a stellar innovator in trendy merchandising and refreshing store visual presentations. They’ve continued to invest in IT and in creating a cross channel experience. While the jury is still out on its efforts to reboot grocery sales, in time Target will arrive at what appropriate focus the company ought to have in the grocery space. I expect 2020 to be a banner year for Target.”

Some on the BrainTrust panel, however, saw issues Target still needs to address.

“While they certainly had great results in an extremely difficult position between Walmart and Amazon, if they wish to extend their success, I believe they need to get their inventory management program cleaned up,” wrote Dave Bruno, director at retail market insights for Aptos. “The number of empty shelves, hooks, bins and racks I see continues to be very high and, at some point, that will certainly impact results.”

Others took different tacks. Retail thought leader Ananda Chakravarty sees at U.S. retailers succeeding internationally, and vice versa.

“Costco,” wrote Mr. Chakravarty. “This chain has ~788 stores, with each of them earning over $183 million in 2019 based on Kantar estimates. They’ve been able to expand into China where other retailers haven’t. Despite a dip in earnings at the end of 2019, they still grew at over 5 percent with little sign of slowing down. Globally, other players for top retailer include Schwarz Group (Lidl/Kaufland), Aldi and Ahold Delhaize — all of which have a majority of sales outside their home markets.”

Some saw dominance in digital as a defining factor for success in 2020.

“Others to watch would be the big names in the battle of the beauty retailers — Sephora and Ulta,” wrote Ms. Goldberg.

“Best Buy! Best Buy! Best Buy!” wrote Dave Nixon, data analytics solution executive at Teradata. “Major pivot against showrooming for online sales, a very robust e-commerce platform using advanced technologies for conversions ($8 billion in revenue), and the biggest model shift in retail (outside of Amazon trying to go physical retail) by moving into services: connected home, health, safety and connected associates.”

Others pointed to more modest but nevertheless thriving chains.

“L.L.Bean,” wrote Jeff Sward, founding partner of Merchandising Metrics. “That’s right — L.L.Bean. Not because they will do anything breathtaking or headline grabbing. Just out of the sheer excellence of their execution.”

But outside of any one retailer’s predicted performance, at least one BrainTrust member foresaw a year that could reshuffle longstanding positions at the top.

“From my research, there seems to be an Amazon and Walmart ‘fatigue’ beginning to infiltrate the marketplace,” wrote Cynthia Holcomb, CEO of Prefeye. “Amazon at some point will become a victim of its own success due to the large scale climate and environmental effects of its delivery model. Walmart, after purging its unicorns, now seems to be settling back and addressing its true customer, leveraging in-store shopping tech to serve their customers.

“2020 and beyond hopefully will be a decade of substance for the consumer rather than bright, shiny press releases,” wrote Ms. Holcomb. (READ MORE)

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I am the managing editor for RetailWire, a lively online discussion forum exploring key dynamics and emerging innovations driving the retailing industry.